By Dr Grace Kite

3 predictions for 2020

1.Innovation in marketing analytics will be around targeted TV

The share of UK households with a smart TV passed 50% for the first time in 2019 (OFCOM). At the same, time UK broadcasters required all catch-up users to register and sign in.

It’s very likely that 2020 will be the year big advertisers begin to experiment with using this new infrastructure + databases by using targeted TV advertising, and analytics providers will need to evaluate it.

There are some tricky issues around merging data sources, and separating out the effect of external drivers of marketing responses, and the innovators amongst us will relish getting stuck in.

2. We’ll begin to see illuminating meta-analysis on how best to use digital channels

We now collectively have a lot of experience of using the media channels that were new in 2010 – things like display, PPC, YouTube, and Facebook. That said, as an industry there isn’t yet consensus on how best to use them effectively – and consumers are still plagued by mis-uses of these channels.

In 2020 our understanding will improve, as summaries of effectiveness studies arrive. Over the coming decade, digital will reach maturity and settle into its rightful place in the media mix.

Spoiler: There’s no single answer on what % these channels should have in the media mix, effectiveness varies massively by industry sector and campaign type.

3. Recession is increasingly likely

We’re not happy about this one, but it is likely that 2020 will see the UK and probably other major economies tip into recession.

In 2019 a large number of leading indicators pointed in this direction. Added to that it’s simply been a very long time since the last recession (more info and sources available on request).

As usual, marketing budgets will mostly be cut, and as usual, the those brands that don’t cut will get cheap share of voice and emerge from recession stronger.

Marketing directors wanting to safeguard their budgets are advised to get their effectiveness analysis in now, before the cuts begin in earnest.

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